🔮 2022 Micromobility Predictions

Plus, France treats car commercials like cigarette ads, Walmart wants less parking, and VCs are pumping transportation tech with money.

Hi everyone,

Happy new year! Hope you had a chance to unwind and recharge over the holidays, and that you’re ready to roll into the new year fresh.

We’re kicking off 2022 with a major virtual conference, Micromobility World, on January 12th, where we’ll be gathering the industry’s top global founders, investors, developers, policymakers, and analysts to attend and speak, including:

🐣 Bird’s Travis VanderZanden on the global trajectory of the micromobility sector, from its infancy to the pandemic and beyond

🔋 Gogoro’s Horace Luke on building Asia’s largest battery swapping empire

🏃‍♂️ Entrepreneur Robin Chase on how people-first infrastructure can restore our freedom of movement

And many more :)

Start 2022 with clear insights on what’s ahead for micromobility. Register free for Micromobility World while space lasts.

This week’s newsletter is presented by Christensen Group…

CG is a top global broker of micromobility insurance in the personal transportation space, with bespoke insurance programs and offerings for sharing platforms, fleet operators, manufacturers, and technology partners.

Their expertise and carrier relationships will find your company a tailored solution that fits your budget and coverage needs. From electric scooters, electric bikes, and ATVs, to electric automobiles and ride-share, CG does it all.

Click here to apply today or email us to start a conversation.

What You Need to Know This Week

  • Micromobility predictions for 2022: more heavy-duty/enclosed form factors will emerge; AI/ADAS will become more refined, leading to smarter vehicles and more data monetization opportunities; capital allocation will slow down as the existing players mature and get more efficient; ride-hailers like Uber may rethink their ebike and scooter strategy; micromobility offerings will become better integrated with transit agencies and navigation apps; and last but not least, micromobility players will start toying with metaverse concepts (yes, really).

  • If driving is the new smoking, should car commercials be regulated like cigarette ads? France thinks so. Starting in March, all French car ads will be required to include a message promoting alternative modes, such as biking, walking, carpool, and public transit.

  • The UK transport minister calls owning a car “20th-century thinking.”

  • 14 cents of every venture capital dollar now goes to climate tech. And the lion’s share of the funding (two-thirds) goes to transportation companies, although micromobility startups currently account for only a small fraction.

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  • As shopping moves online, big box stores like Walmart want to shrink the size of their parking lots. The problem is that parking minimums often stand in their way: “Most municipalities now demand more parking spaces per square foot of store space than the retailers want, according to the report, with big chains like Walmart seeking zoning variances so they can decrease the number of spaces the government demands, saving money on the cost of land.”

  • Harsh economics for instant commerce: Last August, 10-min delivery startup Jokr was losing $159 per order in the US. Expect more heavy losses as Jokr and other companies like it spend VC money to subsidize their operations, while they build the infrastructure required to deliver goods at scale. In many ways, instant commerce’s current predicament is reminiscent of the early days of the scooter bonanza, minus the phenomenally low customer acquisition costs.

  • Honda made a cool mini electric car for hospitalized children.

A screenshot from Honda's Project Courage video

  • First 15-min cities, then 15-min delivery, now 15-min charging. Hero Electric, a leader in India’s electric two-wheeler market, is touting a new battery pack that can be fully charged in a quarter of an hour.

  • Meituan’s drone delivery ambitions are getting seriously advanced: “Over the past two years, Meituan, one of China’s largest internet companies, has flown 19,000 meals to 8,000 customers across Shenzhen, a city with close to 20 million people. The pilot program is available to just seven neighborhoods, each with a three-kilometer stretch, and only from a select number of merchants. The drones deliver to designated streetside kiosks rather than hover outside people’s windows as envisioned by sci-fi writers.”

  • Gogoro is silently crushing the competition for EV mopeds in Taiwan and it’s not even close - we’ll get the inside story of how Gogoro was built from cofounder and CEO, Horace Luke, next week at Micromobility World.

  • American Millennials drive 8% less than Gen X and 9% less than Baby Boomers did at their age.

  • Feeling daring? ESC is now drafting riders for its 60-mph e-scooter racing league.

  • Covid-19 had a huge impact on road safety, according to a new study by ITF. Across 34 countries, 2020 road deaths dipped by 8.6% compared to 2017-2019, thanks to lower traffic volumes caused by shutdowns. But astonishingly, the number of people killed in road crashes in the United States actually increased 7.2% from the year prior - the largest jump of any country tracked.

  • In addition to road safety, another area where the US is most definitely not #1 is electric bikes. While the highest estimates place the number of ebikes sold in America in 2020 at 1M, Europeans purchased an incredible 4.5M ebikes. It will be interesting to see if, with all the talk of ebike subsidies in Washington, that gap narrowed at all in 2021.

  • Niu, a top Chinese electric moped maker, is releasing an ebike that could shake up the US and European markets.

  • A new study shows that shared micromobility devices are more likely to replace public transit, while personally owned micromobility devices are more likely to replace driving. Confirming earlier research, the study also finds that the lifecycle emissions of sharing an ebike/e-scooter are higher than owning one.

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  • Barcelona’s “superblocks” scheme has resulted in a 25% drop in pollution levels in some areas. Similarly, when Berlin lowered speed limits to 18mph (30km/h) on select streets, NO2 fell by 7-9% compared to roads with higher speeds.

  • Transit tech provider Via is shutting down its ride-hailing business to focus on public transport. The move comes right as the startup is getting ready to go public.

  • Google, Apple, and Amazon increasingly want to extend their exclusive operating systems to smart cars, upsetting the balance of power for automakers. “We were spending hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions every year, keeping up with basically a generic experience that was not competitive to your cellphone,” said Ford CEO Chris Farley, of a recent partnership with Google.

Pod People

“Everything will become a multiple of micromobility,” Horace Dediu

On the newest episode of the Micromobility Podcast, cohosts Horace Dediu and Oliver Bruce argue we need to look past horsepower and MPG, and start measuring transportation in terms of the energy needed to move one passenger. They even come up with a new metric, the Modicum of Transport (MoT), to measure mobility efficiency.

Jobs to Be Done

Welcome to our jobs board, where every week we post open positions in hopes of connecting our talented readers with professional opportunities in the burgeoning world of new mobility. Find out who’s hiring below and sign up for the newsletter to view fresh listings every week.

Hit reply if you have a job that you’re interested in listing.

Culdesac:

Dance (Berlin, unless otherwise noted)

Hopp (Reykjavik):

Regional Program Director @ Tranzito (Los Angeles)